poniedziałek, 2 kwietnia 2012

z recenzji książki Helbinga

To assess the usefulness of a modelling technique one has to look at the strength of three stages in the use of a model (Hesse 1963): (encoding) the map from the known or hypothesised facts and processes into the model set-up, (inference) the deduction of results from the set-up to the outcomes, and finally (decoding) the mapping of the results back to the phenomena of concern. Roughly, the usefulness of a model is the reliability of the whole modelling chain: encoding + inference + decoding (Edmonds 2000).

The main criticism of the analytical mathematical approach is that it strengthens the inference step but at the cost of crucially weakening the encoding and decoding steps. If the total effect of this is to weaken the whole modelling chain then this is a valid criticism. Thus, for example, in economics it has been common to use frankly unrealistic assumptions in order to obtain analytical mathematical results. The mistake there was to assume that using mathematics is more important than maintaining relevance in the encoding steps and thus failed to produce useful science (...)

[http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/15/2/reviews/6.html#deffaunt]
Reviewed by Bruce Edmonds and Mario Paolucci

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